International Industrial Ecology Day 2025

Recent Advances in Consequential LCA modelling (10:00 UTC)

Time slot: Nov 21, 2025 — 10:00-11:00 (UTC Change)
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Session Organizer : Massimo Pizzol

Institution :  Aalborg University, Denmark 

Location / Local Time : Aalborg / 11:00 AM

Abstract : 

The consequential approach to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) modelling focuses on developing a LCA model that accounts as accurately and realistically as possible for the consequences related to a specific decision. To this purpose, consequential LCA is focused on modelling causal and market mediated effects triggered by changes in demand. Key features of consequential LCA in this sense are the identification of marginal suppliers –suppliers that are not constrained in their capacity to respond to changes in demand, and the use of the substitution method to solve multi-functionality.

The session will cover recent advancements in identification of marginal suppliers, building of marginal mixes, identification of constraints to supply, and modelling of substitution effects. Different cases will be presented, taken primarily from the work done in the past two years at the Life Cycle Sustainability group at Aalborg University, in Denmark. In particular, the following presentations (8 min each followed by 5 min Q&A) are expected, for a 60 min time slot. Optionally, this can be extended to a 90 min time slot when including a discussion session of 30 min.

- Pizzol M. short Introduction to the session (5 min)
- Codotto G. et al. Analyzing the causal mechanisms and scientific basis behind constrained supply and substitution effects, the case of wild-caught fish products.
- Lancz K. and Sporchia F. Including constraints to biomass supply in the LCA of biobased products: a meso-scale model based on a matrix of biomass uses at EU scale.
- Boeve T.M. and Krogh Poulsen L. Advances in modelling marginal heat supply with a systemic approach.
- Shikhare R. and Pizzol M. Identifying marginal mixes based on trade data and competitiveness indicators – methodological advancement applied to the case of seaweed supply.
- Pizzol M. Closing remarks (3 min)
- (Optional) Additional Q&A and structured discussion section (30 min)

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