International Industrial Ecology Day 2023

Date: 30 November 2023, time 17:00-18:50 CST (UTC+8) 

 

Register in advance for this meeting:

 

https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/upMkc-CrrT4sHdDvrq17s5lQOBm6C7VlOhSh   

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

 

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In the face of the global imperative to combat climate change and attain sustainable development goals, there is a growing demand for advanced energy and environmental systems models capable of guiding strategies for climate change mitigation and sustainable development. This interdisciplinary session seeks to explore and showcase cutting-edge research and innovations in the field of energy and environmental systems modeling, with a specific focus on their application to carbon neutrality and sustainable development goals.

 

Presentations featured in this session will delve into the development and application of energy and environmental systems models. Speakers will share case studies and best practices that highlight successful applications of energy and environmental systems models in achieving carbon neutrality and fostering sustainable development. Topics may include industrial decarbonization, energy transition, and carbon capture and utilization. Speakers will also address the role of modeling in shaping effective policies and governance structures for carbon neutrality and sustainable development. This will entail detailed discussions on the alignment of models with national and international climate and sustainable development goals.

 

The session will emphasize the importance of scenario analysis in decision-making processes. Attendees will learn how models can help policymakers and stakeholders assess diverse pathways toward carbon neutrality and their associated trade-offs.

 

 

Integrated Assessment Models, Material Flow Analysis, Input-output Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, Energy Systems Analysis

 

17:00-17:05

 

 

17:05-17:20

Speaker: Hancheng Dai, Peking University

Abstract: The pursuit of the "double carbon" goal necessitates a nuanced orchestration of the interplay between carbon emission reduction, increasing sinks, and pursuit of high-quality development. This orchestration aims to achieve synergies, fostering win-win outcomes across the realms of the economy, energy, and environmental sustainability. The assessment of medium- and long-term developmental trajectories is inherently marked by high uncertainty, and the harmonized realization of diverse goals spanning both environmental preservation and development proves to be a complex endeavor. The utilization of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), grounded in the simulation of the energy-environment-economic complex system, emerges as a potent instrument for informing integrated decision-making in climate and environmental management. Specifically, it offers a forward-looking scientific foundation for shaping dual-carbon policies. This presentation aims to elucidate the application of the IMED model, independently developed by the LEEEP research group under the leadership of Dr. Dai. The model serves to assess the multifaceted impacts and cost-effectiveness of environmental and climate policies, encompassing dimensions such as pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, health enhancement, and resource efficiency. Through such evaluations, the aim is to provide decision-makers with insights crucial for steering the course toward the realization of the double carbon objectives.

 

 

17:20-17:35

Speaker: Hetong Wang and Jiashuo Li, Shandong University

Abstract: The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) stands as a pivotal strategy for achieving ambitious climate commitments, with affordability emerging as a decisive factor. However, the anticipated escalation in the prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese—four indispensable materials in EV batteries—poses a potential obstacle to widespread EV adoption. Within the context of China, the world's largest EV market, we enhance and elaborate on an integrated assessment model to investigate these ramifications. In a scenario marked by a substantial surge in material costs, our findings indicate that EVs would constitute 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total vehicle count in China. This represents a significant reduction compared to the baseline projections of 49% (2030) and 67% (2060), consequently resulting in a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While long-term solutions such as material recycling and technological battery innovations prove effective, we advocate for the importance of securing critical material supply chains through international collaboration, given the geopolitical and environmental vulnerabilities inherent in these resources.

 

 

17:35-17:50

Speaker: Lirong Liu, University of Surrey

Abstract: Residential heating holds immense potential for substantial decarbonization strides toward achieving net-zero goals. The intricacies inherent in heating systems and socio-economic structures necessitate a systematic design to prevent the exacerbation of fuel poverty. This study pioneers a comprehensive approach that integrates building stock analysis, optimized distributed heating systems, and simulations of economic and environmental impacts, applied specifically to the UK context. The findings reveal that investments in heating systems have the potential to influence the greenhouse gas emissions of the entire supply chain, potentially offsetting the emission reductions achieved within the heating system. Notably, the decarbonization of electricity plays a pivotal role in realizing reductions across the entire system. The effectiveness of the optimized heating system decarbonization plan is significantly contingent upon future energy prices. In the presented case study, the selection of air-source heat pumps is predominant only when electricity prices are lower than three times gas prices. The whole system approach developed in this study emerges as a potent decision support tool capable of shaping heating decarbonization strategies applicable to broader regions and countries.

 

 

17:50-18:05

Speaker: Chuan Zhang, Peking University

Abstract: Efficient and economical decarbonization of energy systems is pivotal for achieving carbon neutrality. Integrated analysis and optimization of energy systems constitute crucial methods for systematic planning in this regard. I will introduce a novel multi-level, multi-dimensional energy system analysis approach encompassing energy demand forecasting, optimization of energy supply mix, and configuration of energy infrastructure layout. This approach holds the potential to facilitate the design of optimal energy transition pathways for nations and regions. The first part of my talk presents key findings from the Net-Zero America study, covering aspects such as end-use electrification, clean power, clean fuel, carbon capture utilization and storage, among other pillars essential for achieving economy-wide net-zero. A comparative analysis of the U.S. and China's energy systems aims to elucidate technological needs for future energy transitions. This includes considerations for energy efficiency, technical costs, and environmental emission targets, establishing a foundation for future technology development. The remainder of my talk concentrates on applying this integrated analysis method to specific contexts, such as industrial parks. A Pareto front of energy system design is proposed, considering the trade-offs between maximizing efficiency, minimizing costs, and reducing emissions. Building on these discussions, I will conclude by proposing an integrated energy system analysis framework based on both bottom-up design and top-down planning, aiming to facilitate energy system decarbonization.

 

 

18:05-18:20

Speaker: Shaohui Zhang, Beihang University/IIASA

Abstract: In response to the global challenge of climate change, China has articulated an ambitious goal to attain carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment underscores a significant effort to substantially curtail greenhouse gas emissions and transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon society. The envisioned transition holds the promise of substantial co-benefits, with a notable emphasis on the improvement of air quality. To comprehensively assess and quantify China's pathways for carbon mitigation and air quality enhancement, we have employed an integrated approach involving three assessment models (GCAM-China, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, and CAEP_CP_1.2) coupled with the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model (GAINS). Our objective is to delineate the potential for air quality improvement across diverse pathways leading to Chinese carbon neutrality, thereby quantifying the key drivers associated with pollution reduction.

 

 

18:20-18:50