International Industrial Ecology Day 2021

Israel is already a densely built economically developed country with a rapidly increasing population. Moreover, the number of housing units in Israel is expected to rise by 60% in the next two decades. In order to supply the demand for this fundamental societal service, a huge amount of construction materials will be required. Despite the importance of a reliable supply of raw materials and the already known enormous impact of buildings and construction materials on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across their lifecycles, to the best of our knowledge, no research has been conducted thus far to quantify and forecast these material cycles in Israel. Furthermore, efforts towards the reduction of GHG emissions in Israel so far have been focused exclusively on energy efficiency programs. In this study, we examine the relationship between material consumption and GHG emissions in different socioeconomic scenarios. We created a dynamic Materials Flow Analysis model which demonstrates three trends: a “freezing” scenario to represent the current socio-economic, technological, and policy trends; a “green” scenario to exemplify the most sustainable future by today’s practical standards; and an intermediate scenario in between these two. For each scenario, the material flows and stocks needed to supply the housing demand in Israel until 2050 are quantified, as well as their resulted life cycle GHG emissions. The results are intended to help policymakers take into consideration the impact of raw materials consumption and to implement this knowledge into governmental planning and programs. In addition, the findings of this research can also shed light on the sustainability trajectories of other countries with similarly rapidly-developing building stock with limited local material resources, which have received less focus so far in this field.